The weighted score is obtained by evaluating each key metric and calculating the overall impact on consumer behavior.
PHASE: Scared
As an area hard hit by COVID-19, this population of consumers has been directly traumatized. With potentially high job loss and the knowledge of someone near them being affected, they prioritize their safety over the need to return to retail experiences that aren’t seen as truly essential.
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Unemployment Rate
Rural vs Urban
Political Persuasion
Politcal Majority
Restaurant Opening
Status By State
Current Lockdow
Status By State
Death Rate
Infection Rate
Unemployment Rate | Score: 1
1 = most impact, 5 = least impact
Unemployment impacts consumers’ ability to spend, especially on discretionary purchases. The lower the unemployment rate within a DMA, the better the potential is for the economy and businesses.
Data through August 31, 2020
Rural vs. Urban | Score: 1
5 = more rural, least impact; 1 = more urban, most impact
Urbanized DMAs have the potential to be heavily impacted by COVID-19 as people are often in closer proximity, whereas more rural DMAs are likely to be less impacted.
Political Persuasion | Score: 1
5 = Republican, 1 = Democrat
Based on current trends, Republican-controlled states have a higher likelihood of opening up faster than those controlled by the Democratic party.
Political Majority | Score: 5
5 being the highest, 1 being the lowest
It’s likely that states with a higher Republican majority can make the decision to reopen faster, while states with a smaller majority may see delays from legislative debate.
Infection Rate Percentage | Score: 2
5 being the lowest, 1 being the highest
The higher the published COVID-19 infection rate, the more likely consumers will feel less confident about returning to businesses, even if the state has relaxed lockdown rules.
Data through Oct. 4, 2020
Death Rate Percentage | Score: 1
5 being the lowest, 1 being the highest
The higher the published COVID-19 death rate, the more likely consumers will feel less confident about returning to businesses, even if the state has relaxed lockdown rules.
Data through Oct. 4, 2020
Lockdown Status | Score: 3
5 = no lockdown; 3 = lifted; 2 = partially lifted; 1 = still on lock down
States are beginning to relax shelter-in-place orders in a phased approach. This will continue to impact consumer sentiment if they feel there may be a potential risk.
Data through Oct. 4, 2020
Restaurant Opening Status | Score: 3
5 = fully reopened; 3 = dine in with limits; 1 = carry-out only
Throughout the country, states are beginning to allow restaurants to reopen in a phased approach. This will continue to impact consumer sentiment if they feel there may be a potential risk.
Data through Oct. 4, 2020
