The weighted score is obtained by evaluating each key metric and calculating the overall impact on consumer behavior.
With a lower perceived impact of COVID-19 and a population that desires to return to their normal lives, this consumer is looking for opportunities to reengage with retail and leisure as fast as possible.
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Unemployment Rate
Rural vs Urban
Political Persuasion
Politcal Majority
Restaurant Opening
Status By State
Current Lockdow
Status By State
Death Rate
Infection Rate
1 = most impact, 5 = least impact
Unemployment impacts consumers’ ability to spend, especially on discretionary purchases. The lower the unemployment rate within a DMA, the better the potential is for the economy and businesses.
Data through November 30, 2020
5 = more rural, least impact; 1 = more urban, most impact
Urbanized DMAs have the potential to be heavily impacted by COVID-19 as people are often in closer proximity, whereas more rural DMAs are likely to be less impacted.
5 = Republican, 1 = Democrat
Based on current trends, Republican-controlled states have a higher likelihood of opening up faster than those controlled by the Democratic party.
5 being the highest, 1 being the lowest
It’s likely that states with a higher Republican majority can make the decision to reopen faster, while states with a smaller majority may see delays from legislative debate.
5 being the lowest, 1 being the highest
The higher the published COVID-19 infection rate, the more likely consumers will feel less confident about returning to businesses, even if the state has relaxed lockdown rules.
Data through Jan. 11, 2020
5 being the lowest, 1 being the highest
The higher the published COVID-19 death rate, the more likely consumers will feel less confident about returning to businesses, even if the state has relaxed lockdown rules.
Data through Jan. 11, 2020
5 = no lockdown; 3 = lifted; 2 = partially lifted; 1 = still on lock down
States are beginning to relax shelter-in-place orders in a phased approach. This will continue to impact consumer sentiment if they feel there may be a potential risk.
Data through Jan. 11, 2020
5 = fully reopened; 3 = dine in with limits; 1 = carry-out only
Throughout the country, states are beginning to allow restaurants to reopen in a phased approach. This will continue to impact consumer sentiment if they feel there may be a potential risk.
Data through Jan. 11, 2020
Historically similar to pre-COVID messaging. Brands should return to the consumer with a loud welcome.
Consumers are out and about but have higher expectations for safety and cleanliness. More open to spend. Relieved at making it through the crisis and resigned to their new normal. Moving from public health considerations back to individualism. More intentional about how they plan for the future. Less media consumption compared to prior 2-3 months.
Consumers have increased their time spent and engagement with digital which has increased reach for display, paid search, paid social, and video. Video has also seen an increase across environtments, impacting linear TV, CTV and streaming video. Print and OOH in these areas should start to rebound, making them appropriate considerations.
Political activity will likely follow or exceed forecasts pre-COVID, impacting both media availability and pricing.
Performance expectations should mirror historical benchmarks while taking into account variables that are driven by changes to media consumption and the decrease of media cost, especially for digital tactics where pricing has decreased substantially. TV and audio costs have seen smaller changes.
These recommendations provide general guidelines when determining the most effective channels during each phase of the assessment. However, every market is unique and typically requires a more comprehensive evaluation to build an optimal plan. If you would like to discuss creating a data-informed, customized plan for one of your markets, we’d be happy to talk.
TV
Radio
Out of Home
Online Video
CTV/Streaming
Paid Social
Paid Search
Display
Streaming Audio
Influencer
Experiential
Developing the right market strategy in the current environment is a true challenge. At Moroch, we specialize in helping clients including McDonald’s, Midas and Planet Fitness create audience-first strategies designed to get the most out of every market.
If you’re interested in having us do a deeper dive into your specific DMAs or run a market-by-market analysis we can make that happen. Just fill out the form or email Kelly Correia directly.